A record-strength El Niño points to a warm Washington winter. Warm isn’t the same as dry for your gutters.

Tacoma, Wash. — Oct. 27, 2026. The El Niño building in the tropical Pacific is now stronger than anything in the modern record. The Washington State Climate Office reported this month that ocean temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region hit 3.33°C above normal on Oct. 1, already past the peak of the very strong 2015 event (3.04°C on Nov. 19, 2015), and more than a month earlier in the season.

That has forecasters leaning hard toward a mild winter. KIRO Newsradio meteorologist Ted Buehner wrote that NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives much of the Pacific Northwest a 60% to 70% chance of a warmer-than-average December through February, “about as high as it’s ever been for such a seasonal weather outlook.”

What the forecasters said

Warmer is likely. Wetter or drier is a toss-up.

NOAA’s official winter outlook, released Oct. 15, shows the greatest chances of a warmer-than-average December through February in the Pacific Northwest and other northern states.

Closer to home, the Washington State Climate Office’s early October outlook says the October through December period shows a 50% to 60% chance of warmer-than-normal conditions across most of the state, while “Much of western Washington has equal chances of above, below, or near-normal precipitation now through December.” Buehner put it simply: the Northwest “usually has a warmer-than-average winter with no real trend on precipitation.”

Snow isn’t ruled out either. Buehner noted that three of Seattle’s 10 snowiest winters came during El Niño seasons; the rest were La Niña seasons.

The angle most coverage missed

A warm El Niño turns snow into runoff

Most El Niño coverage in Washington is about ski seasons, snowpack and drought. Those are real concerns. But the homeowner takeaway sits in one quote. Dr. Michael McPhaden of the University of Washington told FOX 13 Seattle that in a warm Northwest winter, “precipitation will fall mainly as rainfall in the higher elevations rather than snow. And this creates a potential for winter and spring flooding in the lowlands because of early runoff.”

Your roof works the same way on a smaller scale. A storm that arrives as snow sits on the shingles and melts over days. The same storm arriving as rain at 45 degrees goes through the gutters within minutes, every time. In a warm winter there’s no snow pause between storms, just one rain event after another through the same outlets and downspouts.

What to do

A short checklist for a warm, wet El Niño winter

1. 01

   Clean after the big leaf drop

   Wait until most leaves are down. A cleaning then clears the heaviest load before the wettest months.

2. 02

   Run every downspout

   Rain-first winters punish a half-blocked downspout. Water should drain freely at the bottom.

3. 03

   Check where the water lands

   Early runoff is the flooding risk McPhaden described. Keep downspout water well away from the foundation.

4. 04

   Keep an ice plan anyway

   Snow isn’t ruled out. Gutters full of water and debris get much heavier when they freeze.

Under Douglas firs or big maples, a second cleaning in late winter is normal, and gutter guards can stretch the time between visits. Mild, wet winters are also when moss gets going on shaded roofs; we handle roof moss along with our other gutter and roof services.

Price your job with our gutter cost calculator, send us photos, book online or call (425) 828-3000. Start with gutter cleaning in Seattle and Tacoma, or see Puyallup and Lakewood if you’re in Pierce County. Seattle readers: SPU just asked for help keeping leaves out of drains.